How to Survive & Profit in Today’s Markets

Part I: Technical Analysis & Trading Trends

Learn How to Interpret Stock Behavior & Follow Trends Without Confusing and Contradictory Signals from Indicators.

Colin Twiggs

Presented by Colin Twiggs

Beginners: This course will equip you with the essential tools needed to interpret stock charts, evaluate trends and analyze market behavior.

Experienced Investors: This course will challenge some pet theories and build a sound, bottom-up approach to technical analysis.

No Charge

Sessions 45
Length 6-8 weeks
Skill Level All levels
Language English

AUD 1,295 (includes GST)

Sessions 45
Length 6-8 weeks
Skill Level All levels
Language English
Includes Certificate of Completion
Lifetime access

About this course

Published 10-Jul-2016

Trading trends requires a solid foundation in Technical Analysis.

Part I of How to Survive & Profit in Today’s Markets focuses on basic chart analysis without the use of technical indicators which often provide confusing and contradictory signals. In our view, the best source of information is the chart itself.

It is important to get a thorough grounding in our approach before moving on to entries, exits and trend trading.

Experienced traders/investors may find some of the material familiar but it is important not to get lulled into a sense of complacency. There are subtle differences in our approach, with strong emphasis on some areas that are often glossed over, while bypassing others which we have found of limited use.

We strongly recommend that you complete Part I before proceeding to Part II of How to Survive & Profit in Today’s Markets.

On completion of this course you should be able to identify trends and reversals using candle and volume charts, without the use of indicators. This includes:

  • Analyse market movements in three time frames
  • Identify market phases
  • Identify support and resistance
  • Identify trends
  • Identify chart patterns
  • Interpret gaps, range, volume, spikes and false breaks
  • Gauge trend strength and identify likely reversals
  • Identify entry and exit points for trading trends
  • Identify stop loss positions to protect capital

You will need:

  • A computer with Windows operating system or equivalent
  • An Internet connection
  • A subscription to Incredible Charts

You are expected to know:

  • What stocks and dividends are
  • How to buy and sell shares
Incredible Charts basics
  • Create a Candle chart
  • Select a stock
  • Change the Display Period
  • Change the Chart Interval
  • Draw a Trendline
  • Insert Arrows and Comments
  • Save a Chart Image (F11)
  • Create a Watchlist

Amended Format

Based on feedback from readers, and potential license issues raised, I have decided to amend the format of the course and apologize for the inconvenience caused to those who had already booked.

Part I of How to Survive & Profit in Today’s Markets will now be presented online, with regular posts and/or videos, but no online seminars. This will enable readers to work at their own pace.

New Price

There will be no charge for Part I. All you need is a subscription to Incredible Charts.

Curriculum

Section 1: Introduction to Charts

Session 1: Welcome

If you have ever felt you’re stumbling blindly in the dark when it comes to investing in stocks, and that others are taking advantage of your lack of knowledge, then you might be glad to learn that there is a quick and efficient way to interpret stock behavior that doesn’t require a crystal ball.

How to Survive & Profit in Today’s Markets will give you insight into how the stock market works and the confidence you need to make sound trading and investment decisions.

If you’ve searched on the Internet, you may have come across a broad range of confusing and contradictory ideas that do more harm than good. You may also have discovered a vast collection of books that promote exciting new ways to trade or invest in stocks. Many have disappeared from print and can be bought for less than a dollar at local flea markets.

There are also many expensive trading and investment courses that promise wealth and prosperity if you follow a series of simple steps. But programmed trading seldom lives up to its promises, especially the kind of strategies that you can buy over the counter. If you don’t understand what you are doing, you will be unable to adapt to changing market conditions and think through the challenges presented.

Our goal is to teach you to understand market behavior and make informed decisions as to what stocks to buy, when to buy them and, most importantly, when to sell.

By building your stock market intelligence, you’ll be able to manage your investments more effectively. And improve your life in the process.

The biggest risk you take is investing in the stock market without a solid understanding of how it works.

We cannot guarantee that you will never make a wrong decision but this course will help to improve your chances of success.

Session 2: Candlestick Charts

The foundation of all charting and technical analysis is the humble Candlestick or Bar chart with four simple data points:

  • Open
  • High
  • Low
  • Close

…. often referred to as OHLC for short. For the purposes of this course we will stick to Candlestick charts.

This session shows you how to interpret basic candlesticks and identify two important signals.

Session 3: Range

One of the key attributes of a candle is the Range.

There are two ways of measuring range:

  • The simple way, where you take the High minus the Low; or
  • True Range, where you consider the Close from the previous candle.
Session 4: Directional Movement

Apart from Range, we also need to consider Directional Movement: how one candle relates to another.

Session 5: Gaps

A related concept to Range and Directional Movement is Gaps.

There are two types of Gaps:

  • Opening Gaps; and
  • Closing Gaps.

Gaps also form several identifiable patterns:

  • Common Gaps
  • Breakaway Gaps
  • Trendline Gaps
  • Continuation Gaps
  • Exhaustion Gaps
Session 6: Commitment

Another key attribute is Commitment: position of the Open and Close relative to the Candlestick Range.

Session 7: Volume

Volume plays a supporting role with any candle, either strengthening or weakening the signal.

Session 8: Candlestick & Daily Patterns

In keeping with our Keep it Simple approach to Technical Analysis we do not ask you to categorize and memorize every conceivable Candlestick Pattern. Instead we break them down into their key attributes, so that you understand their meaning and not just their name.

Quiz 1

Test yourself with these 12 questions.

Exercise 1

Apply what you have learned in the following 7 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 2: Time Frames, Support & Resistance

Session 9: Dow Theory – Time Frames

We now expand our analysis from single candles (or small groups) to longer time frames.

Charles Dow, inventor of the Dow Theory, believed the stock market could be divided into three separate time frames: the primary trend, secondary reactions, and the daily movement. But Dow and later authors like Robert Rhea, despite extensive analysis, were vague as to how to accurately identify these three movements, leading to differences in interpretation.

Using tools that were unavailable to these early analysts, we provide you with a clear set of easy-to-apply rules to help you classify stock market movements into their respective time frames.

Session 10: Support & Resistance

While Range, Directional Movement and Commitment are still important in longer time frames, there are two additional key attributes: Support & Resistance. Most important of all attributes in Technical Analysis, Support and Resistance are the foundation stone of Trends and Patterns.

Session 11: Strength of Support & Resistance

Judging the strength of Support & Resistance is important in gauging trend strength and in identifying entry and exit points. We take you through the key factors that determine the strength of support and resistance levels.

Session 12: Breakouts

Breakout from Support or Resistance is one of the most common patterns seen in markets. Learn what to look for and how to gauge breakout strength.

Session 13: False breaks

When a breakout fails and retreats above support or below resistance, False Breaks are common pitfalls that all traders face. Identify the types of false breaks, how to avoid them, and how to manage your position when you do get caught.

Session 14: Volume confirmation

Volume at a breakout or on a false break gives important clues as to the mindset of buyers and sellers and and enables us to gauge the strength of Support and Resistance.

Session 15: Resistance becomes Support

Support and resistance are the foundation of all trends and chart patterns. Intriguingly, their roles often reverse, with resistance becoming support after a breakout or support becoming resistance. Learn why this happens, how to identify these patterns, and how to identify entry and exit points.

Quiz 2

Test yourself with these 12 questions.

Exercise 2

Apply what you have learned in the following 8 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 3: Trends

Session 16: Dow Theory – Trends

The ideas of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street Journal, form the basis of technical analysis today. The behavior patterns that he observed apply to markets throughout the world.

Learn how to identify trends in rising and falling markets, and how to recognize reversals.

Session 17: Trend Strength - Corrections

Corrections are an important indicator of trend strength. Every time there is a reaction counter to the trend direction provides us with a measure of the enthusiasm of buyers and the skittishness of existing stockholders.

Learn how to use Support and Resistance levels to gauge trend strength.

Session 18: Trend Strength – Range & Duration

Range and duration are an important indicator of trend strength, both on advances and corrections.

Session 19: Trend Strength - Consolidations

Consolidations are another important indicator of trend strength.

Session 20: Trend Strength - Spikes (or Blowoffs)

Accelerating trends, often referred to as Spikes or Blowoffs, are where demand for a stock increases as the price rises. The trend becomes self-reinforcing because of the feedback loop and can post spectacular gains in a short space of time. The problem is that sooner or later, like a bushfire, it will burn itself out. When the trend runs out of fuel (new buyers), the collapse can be just as dramatic as the initial rise.

Session 21: Trend Lines

A Trend Line alerts you to any acceleration or deceleration in the trend and help to identify major turning points.

Learn how to draw Trend Lines across different time frames and how to use them to track stock momentum.

Session 22: Log Scale

Learn the important differences between a semi-log (commonly referred to as Log) and analog (normal) chart scale and how to use them to reduce distortion in larger time frames.

Session 23: Trend Channels

Trend Channels are an important tool for most traders in short and medium time frames.

Learn how to draw trend channels, how to use them, when to use them, and, most importantly, when not to use them.

Quiz 3

Test yourself with these 9 questions.

Exercise 3

Apply what you have learned in the following 8 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 4: Chart Patterns – Long Term

Session 24: Ranging Markets & Consolidations

Trends are often interrupted by periods of hesitancy and indecision, when price ranges between support and resistance. Markets, as a whole, sometimes become range-bound and form a base or top over several years.

Learn how to identify Ranging Markets and Consolidations and decipher whether accumulation or distribution is taking place.

Session 25: Double Top & Bottom

Double Tops and Double Bottoms are two of the most common reversal patterns in longer time frames.

Learn how to identify them, when they warn of a trend change, and how to trade them.

Session 26: Head & Shoulders

Head & Shoulders and Inverted Head & Shoulders are another two common patterns that warn when the underlying trend is about to reverse.

We use a different approach to the usual Head & Shoulders measurement. This means that we take some signals earlier than normal, and others later.

Learn how to identify these patterns and how to trade them.

Session 27: Bull & Bear Traps

Some would argue that Bull & Bear Traps are Continuation patterns, while others would argue they are Reversal signals. That is purely a matter of definition. What is important is that these incredibly powerful signals offer some of the best trading opportunities available.

Bull and Bear traps are difficult to avoid. Learn how to manage your position when you fall into them and how to trade them to your advantage.

Session 28: Triangles

Triangles are common consolidation patterns that can be traded with a high probability of success.

Learn how to identify the triangle patterns below and how to trade them to your advantage.

  • Ascending Triangles
  • Descending Triangles
  • Equal Triangles
  • Cup & Handle
Session 29: Wedges

Wedges are another common consolidation pattern. While they are a lot more difficult to trade than Triangles, you should be aware of them and some of the common traps that await an unsuspecting trader.

Learn how to identify the different types of Wedge patterns and the common issues associated with them.

  • Rising Wedges
  • Falling Wedges
  • Broadening Wedges
Quiz 4

Test yourself with these 14 questions.

Exercise 4

Apply what you have learned in the following 6 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 5: Chart Patterns – Medium Term

Session 30: Flags

Flags are congestion patterns that resemble a flag on a pole. They represent pauses while a trend consolidates and are a reliable continuation signal in a strong trend.

Learn how to identify both Rising and Falling Flags in bull and bear markets.

Session 31: Pennants

Pennants are a sibling of Flag patterns and are reliable continuation patterns in a strong trend.

Learn how to identify pennants correctly.

Session 32: Rectangles

Rectangles are one of the most reliable chart patterns when they appear in close proximity to support or resistance during an uptrend. We’ll look at how and why these patterns form and how you can use them to your advantage.

Learn how to identify rectangles and important characteristics that determine their reliability.

Quiz 5

Test yourself with these 6 questions.

Exercise 5

Apply what you have learned in the following 6 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 6: Dow Theory & Market Behavior

Session 33: Dow Theory - Bull & Bear Markets

Charles Dow divided the stock market cycle into Bull & Bear Markets, each with three Market Phases.

Learn how to identify Bull & Bear Markets, their Market Phases and their importance in minimizing false signals.

Session 34: Market Stages

Stan Weinstein (The Secret of Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets) takes a slightly different approach to Dow Theory, with its two primary (Bull & Bear) markets. Weinstein breaks the stock market cycle down into four Market Stages.

Learn how to identify Stan Weinstein’s four Market Stages, but also how to react to V-Bottoms, Mid-Point Consolidations, and Blowoff Spikes.

Session 35: Dow Theory - Market Confirmation

Major trend changes are often unclear and take time to resolve.

Learn the technique Charles Dow used to confirm reversals in the primary (Bull or Bear) trend and — since decline in importance of the Transport Average — what we can use today in its place.

Quiz 6

Test yourself with these 6 questions.

Exercise 6

Apply what you have learned in the following 4 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 7: Entries

Session 36: Breakouts – a cautionary tale

The breakout is a fundamental entry signal in stock market trading.

Learn how breakouts are traded and why you should exercise caution when trading them.

Session 37: Retracement

Waiting for a stock to retrace and test the new support level provides a high probability entry point.

Learn how to identify these opportunities and how to trade them.

Session 38: Chart Patterns

Some chart patterns provide high probability continuation signals but you need to exercise caution as many of them are a long way above the trend line.

Learn how to trade the following patterns:

  • Flags
  • Pennants
  • Rectangles
  • Triangles
  • Cup & Handle

….while managing your risk.

Session 39: Trend Lines & Trend Channels

Learn how to identify entry points using Trend Lines and Trend Channels and how to manage your risk.

Quiz 7

Test yourself with these 8 questions.

Exercise 7

Apply what you have learned in the following 9 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 8: Exits

Session 40: Stop Losses

Stop Losses are an essential part of any investors or traders tool box.

Learn how to use Stop Losses to manage risk, protect your capital and your profits.

“Buy and hope is not a strategy.”

Session 41: Initial Stops

You will learn where to initially place stop losses to protect your portfolio and your sanity.

Session 42: Trailing Stops

You can go broke taking profits too early.

Learn how to adjust your stop loss to market movements. This is important to allow your profitable trades the room to grow.

Quiz 8

Test yourself with these 8 questions.

Exercise 8

Apply what you have learned in the following 6 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Section 9: Bringing it all Together

Session 43: Trading Trends

In this session we round off and show you how to apply everything you have learned in a simple trend-following process that you can use every day in the markets.

Quiz 9

Test yourself with these 12 questions.

Exercise 9

Apply all you have learned in the following 8 exercises.

Use Incredible Charts to add comments identifying key attributes on selected charts. Then save the charts and submit them to us if you want feedback on your analysis.

Session 44: Recommended Practice

Practice does not make perfect. But it does make permanent.

It is important that you practice your skills every week until they become instinctive and you can review a chart in less than 60 seconds.

In this section we go through our recommendations for you to practice and continue on the path of improving your investment and trading skills.

Session 45: Summary & Closing Thoughts

This brings Part I of the course to a close (for now).

Thank you for enrolling and for putting your trust in Tony & myself as your coaches. Please feel free to contact us if you encounter any difficulties in applying what you have learned.

Moving forward, we will continue to develop the course by adding new resources and study materials. Please write if you have any suggestions as to how we can improve the course material or new topics that you think we should cover.

You should now be equipped to successfully trade or invest in trending stocks. However, we strongly recommend that you complete Part II of How to Survive & Profit in Today’s Markets before you commence your journey as a trader or investor.

In Part I you learned how to interpret stock behavior and trade trends. Part II focuses on identifying what stocks to trade and when to trade them. That is, how to trade with the market and not against it. Part II also develops further risk management techniques to protect your capital and identifies the key personal attributes — patience, organization, and discipline — needed to stick to your trading plan.

Please invest carefully and never lose sight of the fact that the primary objective should always be to protect your capital. I leave you with the last two lines from A Bard’s Epitaph by Robert Burns (1786):

…Know prudent, cautious, self-control
Is wisdom’s root.

We look forward to seeing you again. Hopefully on one of our other courses.

Sincerely,
Colin Twiggs

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